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NPD's 'Feel Good Trends' That Shaped the Beauty Industry This Year

NPD's Larissa Jensen spoke to guests about beauty marketing trends in 2020 as part of the CEW's 2020 Beauty Awards virtual event on November 12.

NPD's Larissa Jensen's 'Feel Good Trends That Shaped the Beauty Industry in 2020'

While Covid-19 continues to be top of mind, the beauty industry, like many others, has been impacted significantly. There are, however, some surprises and silver linings among the trends today, according to Jensen.

Jensen began the presentation by focusing on feeling good, saying, “What this year did to our hair alone, was crazy,” but there was growth in the at-home hair care market. Stress was a factor in consumer behavior, but there were a few bright spots, including the consumer response to Prime Day.

“Seventy-nine percent of those most interested in shopping for beauty on Prime Day were stressed,” she said. “The U.S. beauty numbers were not great, and the U.S. lost close to $3 billion in 2020.” The year-to-date dollar volume and share of $12 billion in 2019, went to $9 billion, in 2020, in makeup, skin care, hair, and fragrance.

Between 2019 and 2020, NPD saw performance drop in all categories, as each was impacted by Covid-19. Makeup, which was -7% in 2019, became -36% in 2020; skin care was +5% in 2019, and -13% in 2020; Fragrance, +2% in 2019, fell to -21% in 2020; and Hair, from +16% to +3%.

A Place of Comfort: Turning Our Homes Into a Spa

These numbers did not paint the whole picture, she said, citing a shift in purchase patterns. “On the positive side, our homes became a spa, a place of comfort,” said Jensen. The year 2020 also gave men a chance to witness and learn about the value of spa treatments, gaining insight into and appreciation of seaweed wraps and cucumber facials.

Telemedicine saw +26 pt. growth, with 37% having experienced telemedicine as of September 2020, compared to February 2020. Clinical brands grew by +5 pts., as consumers enhanced at-home skin care routines by turning to high-potency ingredients and doctor-supported brands; and facial devices also grew, with +9% dollar growth, as access to professional skin care procedures diminished.

Facial exfoliators experienced consistent gains, with +9% dollar growth, as consumers turned to at-home products that mimicked facial treatments.

Salon Closures Impact Sales—But Nail Care Rises

Salon closures impacted sales in both the nail and hair categories. Beyond spa, nail care product sales rose, and consumers sought a range of nail care products and treatments, which enabled the sector to see double-digit growth of +20%, in an otherwise declining makeup market.

Hair color sales also spiked in March and April 2020, seeing +46% dollar growth, as consumers learned new at-home hair coloring skills. Many women, according to Jensen, had never colored their hair at home before, which amped up the category.

Comfort became a strong driver for purchase in 2020, as Jensen quipped, “Home is where the bra is not.” Statistics showed that 36% of women wore bras less than usual, +20% wore sports bras; and 46% wore pajamas or loungewear, while +30% wore sleepwear.

Consumers were dressing for the lack of an occasion, and the cozy apparel trend took hold and translated to beauty and spirituality in the home. Home scent provided a way to unwind or get energized, and saw +9% dollar growth. CBD beauty also continued to grow, showing +100% dollar growth in makeup, and +74% dollar growth in skin care.

Working from Home Fuels New Demands

Jensen acknowledged that the work-from-home trend will continue, and the tech advantage was clear, as 5 million more notebooks (electronic notebooks) were sold in 2020 than in 2019.

Technology had its best year ever, with 28 weeks of double-digit growth. Six million more TVs YTD 2020 vs YTD 2019; 4 million more PC monitors YTD 2020 vs annual 2019; 60% more webcams YTD 2020, vs annual 2019; and more sales of WiFi routers.

Technology also impacted the beauty industry, particularly in makeup and skin care, as blue light protection, due to increased screen time, became a factor in skin care.

Skin care saw +77% dollar growth, and makeup, +100% dollar growth, in blue light protection products. In addition, as everyone is using their camera for Zoom meetings and getting ready for their close-ups, there was growth in luminous finish face products (+0.8 pts.) and concealer (+0.8 pts.).

Among the products seeing growth in makeup was lipstick, which brought a pop of color to virtual meetings. While faces are covered in real life, lipstick has had a chance to resonate in online meetings, and sales were given a further boost (+58%) on Lipstick Day, July 25, 2020, when purchases climbed and elevated the category.

2020 Will Be Known As The Year of Skin Care

Jensen said 2020 will be known as the 'Year of Skin Care', noting that, “The volume of skin care ounces sold year-to-date 2020 would be enough to give every voter in New York State a two-year supply of face cream.”

The abundant interest in caring for the skin, primarily due to the effects of mask wearing and blue light exposure, has translated to increased sales. Due to Covid-19, over one in five women (53%) changed their skin care routine. Women were washing and moisturizing more; and sun care products also saw a +12% performance, as 26% of the U.S. population planned to spend time outdoors or take a road trip.

Priorities changed in the use of essentials, including a rise in the use of prestige hand soap (+177% dollar growth) and +55% average price increase. Triple digit gains in hand soap reflected an increase in purchase of luxury and artisanal brands; while skin care benefits in makeup, i.e., moisturizing benefits and ease of application, also resonated among consumers, with tinted moisturizer growth on the rise (+0.6 pts.).

A Quest for 'Feel Good' Products

Mental wellness continued to be a top concern, and the need for mental health care and initiatives resulted in a job growth surge. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects clinical mental health counseling job growth of 25% between 2019 and 2029.

The idea of feeling good has given rise to a quest for products that provide indulgence and pampering.

Consumers Desire Attainable Luxury

Consumers are gravitating to artisanal and luxury brands; and pampering, self-care, and gifting, have become a way to unwind.

Artisanal brands have seen +0.7 pt. growth. In addition, looking good and feeling well and healthy have fostered an alignment with clean brands, growing share across skin care, makeup, and hair. Share point change in skin care was +0.4 pts; in makeup, +0.2 pts; and in hair, +1.0 pts.

Brands that support one’s values were also strong, with cruelty-free products, at +3.4 share pts; vegan products at +1.2 share pts.; and advocacy brands at +1.7 share points.

Where Do We Go from Here?

Strange days have indeed called for a new look at our world and at ourselves, and health will continue to be a top priority.

Jensen said that 164 million Americans make New Year’s resolutions each year and health is the top resolution made. She projected the future of beauty to be deeply tied to emotion, and asked “What can we do to nurture the beauty consumer? How can we encourage her to spend with us?”

The year 2020 has been challenging, and it is key for the industry to position beauty as a safe space. As Jensen contends, that will include a continuing trend to self-care and home spas; and if mask use continues, it will also include lip and skin care interest to continue.

She observed the category shift to skin care with all the “curve balls thrown our way in 2020,” and kept the faith in the makeup category, saying, “Makeup is not dead. This will come back.”

She did note that changes in shopping behavior may be more permanent. “There was a lot of growth seen in online shopping. This will probably remain and continue,” she said.

“The emotional connection between beauty and the consumer will remain the same,” said Jensen. In addition, she foresaw the acceleration of luxury and service, acknowledging, “Products that are double or triple the average price point will still have the aspirational consumer. If you could afford a $700 face cream before, you can probably continue, but many others will look for value.”

When asked if she thought consumers will go into stores for holiday shopping, she said, “I hope they do, but online shopping is on everyone’s Christmas list, but we are hoping that brick and mortar will continue to draw consumers.”

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